Kelly’s Simulator

Find the bet size that grows your account fastest, then stress-test it with thousands of simulated trades.

Growth per trade vs bet size

Full KellyYour choice

Past the peak, every extra bit of risk lowers growth. Beyond about twice Kelly, growth turns negative even though your edge is positive.

Win rate
Bet size (% of capital)
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Compare bet sizes

Runs assume independent trades with the same odds every time. Real markets are messier, so many traders use half Kelly or less.